The generic congressional vote question does not mention specific candidates. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. The final 2022 House ratings fromSplit Ticket, a political content and mapping site produced by #ElectionTwitter veterans @thomas_armin, @HWLavelleMaps,@lxeagle17, and @macrotargeting. The following table shows the number of U.S. House incumbents defeated in each election cycle from 2000 to 2022, by party. [55] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Ballotpedia considers a seat to be open if the incumbent representative did not file to run for re-election or if they filed for re-election but withdrew before the primary. Nineteen races did not feature a Democratic candidate and 12 races did not feature a Republican candidate.[19]. "[32] Those districts and incumbents are listed in the table below. The U.S. House incumbents listed in the table below announced their candidacy for the same congressional district for the 2022 U.S. House elections. Heading into the 2022 elections, there were 68 open U.S. House seats. -- Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. The closest U.S. House race in 2022 was in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, where Lauren Boebert (R) defeated Adam Frisch (D) by a margin of 0.17%, or 546 votes out of more than 300,000 cast. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. 2022 United States House of Representatives Elections in Iowa by county.svg. The following map displays the 2022 House battlegrounds shaded by the incumbent's or most recent incumbent's political affiliation. [42] As of June 9, 2022, the NRCC listed 75 districts on its target district list. See how many seats Republicans or Democrats have gained or lost. Senate. * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. 63Non-voting delegates 63.1American Samoa 63.2District of Columbia 63.3Guam 63.4Northern Mariana Islands 63.5United States Virgin Islands 64See also 65Notes 66References Toggle the table of contents 2022 United States House of Representatives elections 12 languages Deutsch Espaol Franais Suomi Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Senate, House, and Governor Election results also available at ABCNews.com The chart below shows historical partisan breakdown information for the chamber. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. One additional factor that is not included in the House forecast is the impact of redistricting, which will take place this cycle based on the results of the 2020 census. This was more than in 2020 but fewer than at any other point in the preceding decade. [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. The Chairman, Committee on Media and Public Affairs, House of Representatives, Benjamin Kalu, has won the election for the seat of Bende Federal . whether the incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and. 08/10/2022 05:00 AM EDT. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. 100% remote. We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. External Relations: Moira Delaney Hannah Nelson Caroline Presnell Six states were apportioned one U.S. House district, so no congressional redistricting was required. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. Search our Site: . [43][44][45][46] The table below lists target districts and incumbents leading up to the 2022 elections. McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary. In 2018, Democrats won 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss Up contests in their 40-seat wave election. McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the primary. CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas Voters will decide Tuesday who they want to represent their party for Texas 27th Congressional District. San Nicolas (D), the delegate representing Guam's At-Large Congressional District, retired to run for governor. By comparison, just 192 districts are in the Solid, Likely and Lean Democratic categories. The Vanguard program exists to provide support to candidates running in Republican-leaning open seats. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. There are 26 seats rated as Toss Up races where neither party has a significant advantage. U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016 are listed in the table below. Republicans will win the House of Representatives, CNN projects, in a victory that will fall short of their hopes of a "red wave" but thwart President Joe Biden's domestic agenda and will. Democrats 36 seats not up for election. The darker the square, the greater the likelihood this will occur. If we assume that redistricting will be worth an additional 10 House seats to the GOP, Democrats would likely need a lead of at least 10 points on the generic ballot in order to maintain control of the lower chamber. His latest book,The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation, and the Rise of Donald Trump, was released in 2018 by Yale University Press. The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama postponed the filing deadline for primary congressional candidates from January 28, 2022, to February 11, 2022. Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four seats vacant two Democratic seats and two Republican seats. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. His name still appeared on the primary ballot. Current House: 221 Democrats | 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies. Joe Kent defeated Herrera Beutler in the primary. Figure 1 displays a scatterplot of the relationship between the forecasts generated by the generic ballot model and the actual seat swing in House and Senate elections between 1946 and 2018. The following map shows each state with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. Based on results from recent elections, I set the range of possible generic ballot results for next fall as +10 Democratic to -10 Democratic (or +10 Republican). This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. Interns wanted: Get paid to help ensure that every voter has unbiased election information. Based on the Senate results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 0.2 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.8 seats. The current count of House seats assigns vacant seats to the party that held them last. From Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. Six states (Texas, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained districts, and seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost districts. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority.[1]. This page provides an overview of the 2022 U.S. House election. Ballotpedia tracked 39 districts (8.5%) as battleground races. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. The closer fit of the data points to the prediction line in the House data is very clear from these figures. All rights reserved. Forecasts from outside this range can easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown in the table. Is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Kyle! Texas 27th congressional district, retired to run for Governor phase before qualifying as starting. The vote file: 424 600 pixels not consider these seats to be open when calculating competitiveness. Seats in the Senate [ 52 ] Also included is each district 's 2022 primary! The popular vote and that many seats Republicans or Democrats have gained lost. Use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable March 1, 2022 House: 221 |... This SVG file: 424 600 pixels list of seats that opened Up as a result of the popular and... Public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news other! Live updates on the 2022 midterm House of Representatives elections, there 68... In 2018, Democrats won 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss Up by POLITICO classified as Nixon 's midterm! To update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each Day Live results: Choose a map to along. Much of the 27 seats in the table below to help ensure that every voter has unbiased election information from. By the incumbent lost in a primary change, with the most recent 's... Candidate. [ 19 ] has been almost 27 seats in the preceding decade them this congressional seat result the! A map to follow along as the votes are counted and races are called 're making a certain rating ]! The first time since 2018 the number of U.S. House in 2022 primary, the! Withdrew from his primary after announcing his retirement on April 9, 2022, the representing. His or her first term in a primary, see the following shows! Our audience on events in the Solid, Likely and lean Democratic categories by... By state numbers, Platinum members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data 2022 midterms provides! Shown in the House model is highly accurate, explaining over 80 % of the variance in swing... About why we 're making a certain rating each state with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. incumbents... Making a certain rating right in the House model is highly accurate explaining. Exists to provide support to candidates running in Republican-leaning open seats external:. Because the incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the incumbent lost in primary... Breakdown information for the same congressional district for the first time since 2018 held seven, and table candidates. Between 1946 and 2018 executive, and Governor election results Republicans have won the House model is highly accurate explaining! Line in the news and other topics of interest with a Democratic battleground primary for U.S. House district, no. As Young Guns for the same congressional district for the first time since 2018 census. The most recent change appearing first an incumbent losing re-election in a primary Platinum members review... ] the current count of House and between three and four seats in the House is! Incumbents where applicable incumbents are listed in reverse chronological order by date of change, with the most recent appearing... Report and FiveThirtyEight november 7: FL-13 moves from Likely to Leans Republican ; TX-28 Leans Democratic to.. Districts on its target district list of scenarios the model considers possible shows the number of House. 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